Pack expected value (EV) explained - what's a good EV?
How to work out a pack's expected value from its odds table, what a good EV looks like, and why the sell-back rate matters just as much.
Expected value, or EV, is the single most useful number for judging a pack. It answers one question: if I opened this pack thousands of times, what would the average card be worth?
How to calculate it
Online packs list their odds as value ranges. Take the middle of each range, multiply it by its chance, and add everything up.
| Card value | Middle | Chance | Middle x chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50-$17.50 | $15.00 | 44% | $6.60 |
| $17.50-$25 | $21.25 | 25.6% | $5.44 |
| $25-$37.50 | $31.25 | 19% | $5.94 |
| $37.50-$62.50 | $50.00 | 9.5% | $4.75 |
| $62.50-$125 | $93.75 | 1.5% | $1.41 |
| $125-$250 | $187.50 | 0.3% | $0.56 |
| $250-$500 | $375.00 | 0.1% | $0.38 |
| Expected value | $25.07 |
That's a real odds table from a typical $25 pack. Its EV is about $25, or 100% of the price. Because each range is wide, the true figure could be anywhere from about $20 to $30, so treat EV as a guide, not a guarantee. The pack odds calculator does this for any pack.
What's a good EV?
On online packs backed by real cards, published EVs we've seen sit roughly between 90% and 100% of the price. As a rule of thumb:
- Near 100%: a fair pack by today's standards.
- 90-95%: normal.
- Well below 90%: you're paying a lot for the thrill.
Some sites state their EV on each pack page. If a site doesn't, you can work it out from the odds table, as long as it shows one. If it shows no odds at all, that tells you something too.
Why sell-back matters as much as EV
EV is the card's estimated value. What you can actually get back depends on the sell-back rate, usually 85-90%. A pack with 100% EV and 90% sell-back returns about 90% of your money if you sell everything back. A pack with 95% EV and 85% sell-back returns about 81%.
So compare packs on EV x sell-back rate, not EV alone.
EV is an average, not a promise
Most pulls on a typical pack land below the price. The average is pulled up by rare big hits. That's how packs work everywhere, not a trick, but it means short sessions swing a lot. Set a budget you're happy to spend, and treat any big hit as a bonus. More on that in rip packs or buy singles?
Quick answers
What is the expected value of a card pack?
It's the average value of the card you'd pull per pack over many openings. Multiply each value range's midpoint by its chance and add the results. A $25 pack with an expected value of $24 returns $24 of card value per pack on average, even though any single pack can land far above or below that.
What is a good expected value for a pack?
On online packs backed by real cards, published figures we've seen sit roughly between 90% and 100% of the pack price. Near 100% is good. Remember to factor in the sell-back rate, because if you sell cards back you only receive 85% to 90% of that value.